Walmart’s Earnings Will Show How Consumers Are Holding Up in 2025
Walmart is about to give the street one of the clearest signals we’re going to get on where the average American shopper stands right now.
Walmart is about to give the street one of the clearest signals we’re going to get on where the average American shopper stands right now. The company’s Q3 report, dropping Thursday morning, covers everything from inflation headaches to the shifts in who’s spending money and where — and the numbers could be pivotal as the economy hits its next crossroads.
Walmart Inc (WMT)
Financial Score: 86 / 99
Quick Tip
To keep your portfolio strong, stay on top of the financials for each company you hold. Solid companies mean better returns, so be sure to check in on their quarterly and annual numbers.Interesting stocks usually score 80+ on the Financial Scale, with top players hitting 90+. If that score dips below 80, it might be a good time to consider cutting ties before things take a turn.What’s Getting Reported
Wall Street sees $177.5 billion in revenue — a 4.7% jump from last year. The consensus is for $0.60 in EPS on a diluted basis, up from $0.58 last year. Same‑store U.S. sales are expected to climb 3.9%, showing Walmart’s still grabbing share, especially as shoppers across the income spectrum trade up for value.
But the numbers only tell half the story. The retailer is also going through a leadership change. CEO Doug McMillon — who’s been running the store for over a decade — is stepping down in January. He’ll transition to advisor, making way for John Furner, a 45‑year Walmart veteran most recently running the U.S. division. The move is timed for one of the best periods in the company’s recent history, with shares hitting an all‑time high last month despite falling back about 8% since then.
E‑Commerce and the New Shopper Mix
Walmart’s e‑commerce business is booming, up 15% year‑to‑date, and now generates over $90 billion in annual sales. The company’s seen a sharp uptick in affluent shoppers, with households earning $100k+ increasing their store visits by 12% over the past year. But it’s not just the rich — Walmart’s also holding steady with middle- and low‑income families, who now account for about 60% of total sales.
The growth story is built on value, delivery, and digital innovation. The recent OpenAI deal lets customers ask for shopping recommendations via ChatGPT, making it easier to find deals and compare prices. The platform’s driving 1 in 5 online orders in major markets, and the company’s piloting more AI‑driven merchandising in 2026.
The Challenges — Tariffs, Inflation, and Cautious Shoppers
The pressure’s real. After a series of tariff hikes, prices on certain imported goods (electronics, toys, home goods) jumped 7–10% this quarter. Walmart’s own data shows middle‑income families started cutting back on discretionary purchases, especially in the tariff‑hit categories.
But spending overall hasn’t collapsed. While consumer sentiment sank to a new low in November, retail spending actually accelerated, with the majority of new dollars coming from the top 20% of earners. The stock market’s sharp pullback in late October has already hit confidence, and if the slide lingers, Walmart’s management expects a temporary pullback in big-ticket items.
What’s Next — Bigger AI, Tighter Supply Chains
Walmart’s 2025–2027 plan is laser‑focused on squeezing more out of digital, automation, and logistics. The company will expand its Smart Home and Health & Wellness category, targeting a 10% mix of total sales by 2027. Its supply chain investments are tracking toward $1.1 billion this year, with new warehouses and last‑mile delivery hubs opening every quarter.
At $385 billion market cap and about 22× forward earnings, Walmart’s valuation reflects the balance of growth and safety. The stock’s insider buying is at a five‑year high, and analyst ratings are overwhelmingly bullish — all 21 tracked by Visible Alpha are “buy.”
Bottom Line — A True Barometer of the American Wallet
Walmart’s not just another retailer — it’s the best gauge we have on how the average consumer is really doing. The mix of high‑income growth, persistent value demand, and cautious cuts in some categories could paint a full picture once the dust settles. If the numbers are as solid as the consensus expects, Walmart’s leadership change and tech push might be the beginning of another multi‑year defensive winner.
Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago. ― Warren Buffett.
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The mix of affluent shoppers trading up while middle income cuts back on discretonary spending paints a clear bifurcation in the consumer base. Watching how tariff impacts flow through to pricing will be key for Q4 guidnce. The $1.1B supply chain investmet shows theyre playing the long game rather than just chasing quarterly numbers.